via the ARRL: The ARRL Solar Update

A series of M-class flares — all from Region 4479 — pushed solar activity to high levels this week. The largest of the flares was an M3.5 on July 1.
 
An earlier flare from this region, M1.3 accompanied by a 1N H-alpha flare which peaked late July 1, appears to have been associated with dimming and a coronal mass ejection (CME) first identified in CCOR-1 imagery. Initial analysis suggests the CME has an Earth-directed component, although the speed derived from the available imagery was only 300-450 km/s. Further analysis is needed to increase confidence.
 
Flux emergence and some consolidation around the leader and trailer spots was observed in Region 4479 during the period. Region 4478 produced an M8.5/2b flare on July 1 following occasional C-class flaring. This region also exhibited flux emergence in the intermediate spots and around the leader spot. Finally, Region 4480 was quiescent although some intermediate spots developed.
 
Solar activity is likely to decrease to moderate levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-strong), particularly from Region 4479.
 
Solar wind parameters were enhanced with CME passage. Solar wind speeds have ranged from approximately 360 – 425 km/s. The CME from June 30 is expected to arrive early on July 3, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are expected to last into July 4. There is enough uncertainty around the CME timing that an arrival mid-to-late on July 2 is possible.

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