via the ARRL: The ARRL Solar Update

Region AR4246 underwent significant evolution, growing in overall size while gaining multiple new spots. Subsequently, AR4246 was the main provider of activity which included an M1.2 flare on October 13. Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with potential Earth-directed components are in the mix at this time.

Additional modeling efforts are underway to perhaps confirm those suspicions. The largest flare was a long-duration M4.8/2n on October 15. Modeling efforts showed the ejecta to be on a northward trajectory and not on an Earthward course.

Other notable activity included a prominence eruption off the ENE limb-first visible in LASCO C2 imagery on October 14. Given the location of the event, initial analysis suggests this ejecta to be well into foul-ball territory and not Earth-directed. Additional modeling efforts are underway to perhaps confirm this suspicion.

Slight decay was observed in the intermediate portion of Region AR4248 as it grew in length. Region AR4247 was in decay as well. The remaining regions were unremarkable in comparison. No new regions were assigned numbers this period. Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely for the next 3 days, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (strong) event, due to the current and potential flare activity of Regions AR4246 and AR4248.

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